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There’s a strange dichotomy between the complexity of high level sports handicapping and the amount of theoretical literature on the subject. While successful sports betting is a complex and difficult pursuit, there’s very little that’s been written on the subject from a serious theoretical angle. For that reason, it can be helpful to delve into the wealth of books available to the serious poker player for insights that can be applied to sports betting.

Poker literature is especially applicable to the sports handicapper because both can be very profitable for a knowledgeable, experienced and skillful pro. Poker expert Bob Caro has noted that while there are a number of professional gamblers specializing in poker and sports wagering there’s not a single person who can honestly say they play roulette for a living.

The simple fact is that the house edge in roulette cannot be overcome by any combination of skill, experience and/or discipline. When you win, it is because you get lucky. When you lose, its because you didnt get lucky. To add another Caro concept to the equation, the decisions that the player makes when playing roulette simply dont matter”at least in terms of overcoming the theoretical edge enjoyed by the house. In the long term, it doesnt matter whether you choose red or black, odd or even, or certain numbers. You may get lucky with your choices or you may not, but these decisions do not impact the house edge one iota.

Caro argues that one of the poker players most valuable weapons is discipline at the table. The reason for this is that the average person goes into a casino for precisely the opposite reason”he wants to have some downtime away from the discipline and order that circumscribes the rest of his life. He wants to down a few cocktails, leer at some cocktail waitresses, and throw some money around for awhile. Hes not worried about theoretical return on investment, pot odds or other concepts of serious play. Casinos exist for the sole reason of providing him all of the escapism he wants while they slowly use their house advantage to make a profit off of him. Granted, poker operates differently in terms of the house advantage but the motivation that drives the recreational gambler to the poker table is no different than that which drives him to the slot machines or blackjack layout.

Caro’s emphasis on discipline in poker is also true for the serious sports gambler. The foundation of a professional sports bettor’s long term success is to approach it with the same discipline, rigor and professionalism that he would any other job. If you continue to think about it in the same terms as the recreational gambler does, you’re in for a difficult road. The more seriousness that you bring to your sports betting, the higher the likelihood that you’ll be successful.

There’s nothing wrong with being a recreational sports gambler, or a recreational gambler of any sort. They’re vital to those of us who do this for a living since they’re what keeps casinos and sportsbooks in business. Ultimately, the best handicapping is pointless without a sportsbook to take the action.

If you want to bet recreationally, thats fine and unless you have the dedication and discipline to do it right its probably better for most people. You might be able to win more often and lose less frequently with some enhanced discipline. Ultimately, however, as a recreational gambler the only discipline you really need to know is the same as for other casino games or any hobby”just dont bet more than you can afford to lose. After that, youre on your own.

Ross Everett is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports and is in charge of providing free sports picks to a variety of websites and broadcast media outlets. He is a widely published freelance writer specializing in sports handicapping, horse racing, clogging and falconry. He lives in Southern Nevada with three dogs and a wombat.

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Many serious sports bettors consider the futures wager the province of rank amateurs trying to go for the big killing. They’re the sports betting equivalent of the wanna-be stock investor who always gripes if only I had bought Microsoft when they went public. They’re not the type who’ll do the work to grind out profits in the market, nor are they forward thinking enough to find the next big company to go public. They’d rather lay some money on a high priced dog and hope for the best, which seldom (if ever) occurs. Right now at some sportsbooks a $100 bet on the Cincinnati Bengals to win the 2010 Superbowl will pay back $10,000. The problem is that the true odds of Cincinnati winning the Superbowl are probably in the range of 50,000 to 1 which makes the +10000 you’re getting in this bet a bad value from the get-go.

Of more practical concern to the serious sports bettor is the necessity of tying up a portion of your wagering bankroll for a long period of time. Additionally, once you’ve placed a futures bet the outcome is still subject to the typical areas of concern for sports handicappers–injuries, trades, coaching changes, etc. It’s hard enough to stay on top of these variables on a day-to-day basis, and predicting them over the full season is downright impossible.

So why bet futures at all? More so than anything else, its essential to think of sports wagering not in terms of who wins or loses, but in terms of value. Properly utilized, future book wagers are often a great source of value. Below are some of the ways I like to use future wagers:

The early bird gets the worm. The early bettor gets the value: Many sports books offer non-sports proposition bets, including entertainment based wagers like the Academy Awards. Someone who enjoys following the industry and keeping up-to-date on whats happening in Hollywood can get a decided edge over the bookmaker, who doesn’t have the time to stay juiced in to industry news and gossip.

With many books taking bets on awards like ‘Best Picture’ before nominations are even announced, a bettor has a great opportunity to find overlay situations. By staying on top of the entertainment news and accurately predicting which films will be nominated, its often possible to get substantially better prices than will be available after their announcement.

The nature of the film industry makes using a future wager in this manner very attractive. The release schedule of films is established in advance and is publicly known. The cut off date for award consideration is the end of the calendar year, so nothing can pop up and become a surprise after that. Of the hundreds of films that are released each year only a handful are legit Oscar contenders and with some work its easy to narrow those down further. After that its just a matter of finding the value.

Taking a position for profit: Now well turn our attention to sports and how to use the futures wager there. As I noted above, sports inherently presents more variables than the film industry. Furthermore, the top teams are usually not priced for value. Currently you can get +650 on New England to eventually win the 2010 Superbowl. The Patriots are certainly capable of winning, but the value just isn’t there.

To find value on this sort of wager you need to look for ‘dark horse’ candidates. For example, at midseason you could have bet on the Carolina Hurricanes to win the 2009 Stanley Cup at prices as high as 25/1 or 30/1. Now, they’re one of four teams remaining and are priced at 5/1 to 7/1 depending on the book.

This play didn’t necessitate a crystal ball or a Canadien genie with a profound interest in hockey–instead, it was a simple matter of determining teams that offered true odds of championship success that were lower than the price offered in the future bet. At prices like 25/1 or 40/1 its possible to back several dark horse ‘candidates’ and if one or more enjoy postseason success it presents a number of opportunities to hedge and guarantee a profit.

Also, don’t forget to consider ‘the field’. Many futures wagers lump a number of teams or competitors together as ‘the field’ and offer a single price to bet them all. Occasionally, the quick thinking handicapper can find unique value situations. For example, after Dale Earnhardt’s tragic death in 2001 some sportsbooks continued to offer a ‘field’ position on rookie of the year. A bettor who followed NASCAR closely would have quickly realized that Kevin Harvick–who replaced Earnhardt in his Richard Childress racing Chevy–qualified for the ‘rookie of the year’ award and could have bet the field at prices as high as 15/1. After he won his first race, the price for ‘the field’ dropped to 2/1 and by midseason ‘the field’ was a -250 favorite.

This is obviously a best case example, but there have been similar circumstances that were still good value plays but didn’t work out perfectly like the Harvick situation. Several years ago it wasn’t uncommon to find a field bet on NASCAR road races that allowed you to bet several of the road course specialists like Ron Fellows, Boris Said and Scott Pruett with one bet. You wont be able to take advantage of the field bet often, but if you keep your eyes open and think out of the box it can be very profitable when it does occur.

Don’t forget to shop around for the best wagering value. This is true with any sports bet, but particularly so with futures wagers as the prices you find will vary much more than a typical pointspread. A little bit of effort can easily reveal a more advantageous price, meaning greater line value.

Ross Everett is a well known writer specializing in sports handicapping, wombat racing, travel and fencing. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is in charge of providing daily free sports picks to a number of Internet and broadcast media outlets. He lives in Southern Nevada with three dogs and a wombat.

Stu Ungar didn’t have much going for him in most areas of life. In fact, it could very well be argued that he was downright inept in most areas of existence. He also had a self destructive streak that manifest itself in heavy drug use and other behaviors. Ungar, however, had one great gift–he was a prodigy with a deck of cards. He would become one of the first superstars of poker before it became a fixture on ESPN, but wouldn’t live to enjoy the ‘boom’. Ungar would eventually be done in by his baser elements, and would be found dead in a Las Vegas hotel room in November,’88.

For those unfamiliar with the big guns of high stakes poker, the only way to describe Ungar’s abilities is a metaphorical comparison to sports. With a green felt table and a deck of cards involved, Ungar was ‘Jordan-esque’. With Ungar, his greatest accomplishment was undoubtedly three World Series of Poker victories-a feat not unlike MJ’s six NBA titles. Texas Hold-em poker, the game of choice for the cognoscenti, is a seemingly simple game that belies its deceptive complexity. The successful player needs to be able to instantaneously plan strategy based on a number of ever shifting variables. Countless volumes have been written on the subject, but Ungar was able to perform complex analysis and strategy with amazing speed-almost instinctively. Between his three WSOP victories, and countless more informal victories and profitable poker room sessions, Ungar won millions of dollars playing poker. The amazing subtext to Ungar’s sheer mastery of Texas Hold’em was the fact that it was the third card game he had mastered. Ungar first came to Las Vegas as a gin rummy prodigy; he had beaten all of the good players on the East Coast and moved to the desert mecca in search of new opportunities. He had soon run the table of Nevada’s gin players, and then turned to blackjack out of necessity. He was quickly barred as a card counter at a number of Southern Nevada casinos. Needing a new vocation, he took up poker.

The cruel irony of Ungar’s life, however, was that masterful as he was at the poker table he was equally as inept at life beyond the casino walls. He was addicted to drugs for most of his life, and gambled away millions betting on sports and golf (a game he played despite being horrible at it). After his WSOP win in’97, he was nearly broke and wasted away from drug use by the time the’98 tournament rolled around. Vegas casino owner Bob Stupak bankrolled him, but as the games began Ungar cowered in his darkened hotel suite at Binion’s unable to pull himself together enough to play.

Other stories of Ungar’s troubled life away from the poker tables evoke the same theme: buying a new Mercedes with cash after a WSOP victory and driving it until it fell apart from lack of maintenance; signing mortgage papers as he played in the Dunes poker room; losing 1.5 million dollars betting on sports in the course of a weekend.

Ungar’s death came as something of a shock as he’d shown signs of cleaning up his act. Longtime friend Bob Stupak and helped pay off his debts and staked him in the major poker tournaments. Ungar was found dead two days after the two had drawn up a formal contract. Ungar also left behind an ex-wife and a teenage daughter, who still live in Las Vegas. Though the official cause of death was listed as a ‘heart attack’, there were a mixture of drugs found in his system including cocaine and methadone.

Many of the famous gamblers of Las Vegas legend such as Puggy Person and Doyle Brunson have been tough, larger than life individuals with a healthier than normal dose of self-preservation skills. In this respect, Ungar was an anomaly among gambling greats-he was physically frail and almost completely helpless away from the poker table. At the table, however, he became an almost unbeatable adversary. His story is certainly not one that the modern day, publicity conscious Las Vegas will celebrate. He will be remembered, however, as part of the tradition that gives the city its unique character. From the mobsters that pioneered the city, to the Rat Pack that civilized it, to the corporations that cleaned it up, characters like Stu Ungar have provided Las Vegas with its unique character.

Ross Everett is a experienced freelance writer specializing in travel, casino gambling and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, fencing and deep sea diving. He lives in Southern Nevada with four dogs and a pet coyote.

Although the Breeders’ Cup is nipping at its heels, without a doubt the Kentucky Derby is the biggest horse race of the year in the United States. This is a race that attracts many fans from the general public that typically don’t follow horse racing. A thorough understanding of horse racing, and which horses will win and why is a complex discipline that requires extensive specialized knowledge.

While understanding and predicting horse races is a very complex discipline, here are some basics that can help the amateur understand the Kentucky Derby. Back during the seventies, it was a race dominated by the favorite including three great Triple Crown winners”Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed”and a great horse that came close, Spectacular Bid. Since Spectacular Bid won the Derby in 1979, however, you can count the favorites who’ve won the race on one hand with fingers left over. If I was a serious horseplayer, I might not advise you to do this but since I’m just worried about predicting the outcome of this one race Im going to suggest that you forget about the favorite altogether. Not only will you not be flying in the face of recent history, but also it allows you to concentrate on the horses offering greater value.

In all fairness, it should be noted that the favorite has been a historically strong proposition. In the 135 Kentucky Derby races the post time favorite has placed in the money at a 69% clip over the history of the race. So why have the favorites been on such a money losing run in the past two decades? My personal theory is that it is a function of the growing hype surrounding the race”in other words, you get a lot of amateur horse racing fans that distort the notion of the favorite being the most likely to win the race. The most hyped horse becomes the favorite, but this is not always the best horse. In any case, though it could be argued that the anti-favorite bias could be due for a turnaround, for the purpose of understanding this particular race Im going to forget about the post time favorite.

Don’t forget to pay attention to the starting position of the horses, known as ‘post position’ in racing slang. The historical data suggests that a Derby winner is most likely to come from positions 1 through 5, while the outer positions (11 through 20) have produced relatively few winners. This is something of an over simplification, but for the purpose of understanding a single race it won’t hurt to just rule out all horses starting in a bad position.

A horse’s lineage and breeding is also an important factor in the race. While this may be the most complex and demanding area of horse racing, there is a simple rule of thumb that can help a novice for this race. Most high level race horses are born in Kentucky. Well over 80% of Derby winners have also been born in the Bluegrass State. So just eliminate all horses that weren’t born in Kentucky. Then consider a horse’s gender and eliminate any horse that isn’t an intact male (geldings and fillies). Over 90% of all Derby winners have been intact males, though a gelding did win the race in 2003 (Funny Cide). For the horse racing novice, however,this is another good way to pare down the field.

Don’t forget to consider dosage index numbers. These are a complex mathematical formula that measures a horse’s breeding lineage plus his past performance. You want to look for horses with a dosage index of 4.00 or less–over half of Derby winners have met this criteria since dosage numbers came into common usage in the mid 1980’s.

For a more serious introduction to horse racing, check out the many books available on the subject at any large bookstore. For a casual fan who just follows the ‘big races’ these rules will help you get a decent grasp on the Kentucky Derby and understand who will win and why.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and highly respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and World Cup betting sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

Quarterback Tony Romo had another solid game, and the Dallas Cowboys made short work of the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday afternoon in a 38-17 victory. Romo threw for 256 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions, and receiver Miles Austin caught a touchdown pass for the third straight game.

The Cowboys also got on the winning side of the NFL pointspread ledger with the win and cover as -10 home favorites. Dallas is now 4-3 against the spread for the season, while Seattle fell to 2-5 versus the number. The 55 combined points scored went OVER the posted total of 46′.

Romo has made greater patience in the pocket a priority this season, and it’s paying dividends. Sunday’s game was his third straight without an interception and he’s stayed interception free in five games this season-more than he did all of last year. Romo couldn’t resist a joke at his own expense:

“Shock! I’m seeing things. It’s as simple as that. I’m not throwing and hoping.”

Head coach Wade Phillips expressed his pleasure, but didn’t want his team to start believing their own press clippings:

“I feel good about the progress we’ve made, but we’ve still got a ways to go.”

Team owner Jerry Jones was happy with the performance and already looking ahead to next Sunday’s game at Philadelphia:

“I’m just glad to see as many people really do as well and play as well as they did today. Philadelphia is the kind of game that I think we’re ready for. … Plus, I think we all remember so much — I know I do and so many players on this team remember — how we left Philadelphia last year.”

Seattle quarterback Todd Hasselbeck played well, amassing 249 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions but didn’t get much help from a defense that couldn’t put the necessary pressure on Romo. He sounded frustrated in his postgame comments:

“We put two weeks into this game plan. I felt like we were ready. We just didn’t get it done. …. I feel physically drained, emotionally drained. I’m frustrated. We’re all searching for answers.”

The big game for the Cowboys that Jerry Jones alluded to is next Sunday night as they travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles. The Cowboys have been installed as +3 underdogs with the total set at 47′. They’ll head to Green Bay to take on the Packers the following Sunday. Seattle will host the lowly Detroit Lions next Sunday, with the Seahawks a -10 home favorite and the total set at 43. They’ll hit the road for their next two games, facing the Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

Behind a career day for quarterback Matt Schaub, the Houston Texans erased a 17-14 halftime deficit to score– points in the second half and defeat the host Cincinnati Bengals 28-17. Schaub threw for 342 yards and 4 touchdowns against one interception in the solid road victory. Against a team that had won three straight games in the final seconds, Houston never gave Cincinnati the chance to create any late drama. Cincinnati dropped to 4-2 with the loss while Houston evened their record at 3-3.

Houston took the money as +3′ road underdogs with the outright win, and both teams are now 3-3 on the season against the NFL pointspread. The 45 points just managed to stay UNDER the posted total of 46. The Texans have gone UNDER in 4 of 6 this season while the Bengals evened their NFL totals record at 3-3.

After the victory, Schaub said that his team knew of Houston’s penchant for late game comebacks and that ‘putting them away’ would be a priority:

“Every game went down to the wire for them. Credit goes to them because they were able to find ways to win those games. So it was a matter of putting the game away.”

The Texans’ taciturn head coach Gary Kubiak would only offer that:

“Matt continues to put up exceptional numbers on the road.”

The defense did a stellar job as well, shutting out the Bengals in the second half. In the third quarter, Houston only allowed six yards on nine plays for a franchise record. Cornerback Dunta Robininson talked about the defensive corps mindset:

“It was swarm tackling. Everybody has a job to do, and today we made this team a one-dimensional team. Overall as a defense, we played well.”

In the losing locker room, wide receiver Chad Ochocinco admitted that his team knew that they couldn’t rely on last minute heroics to win games:

“That’s our fault. We’ve been saying that we can’t keep winning with the way we’ve been playing. We’ve got to be consistent for all four quarters.”

The Bengals will play their next two games at home, starting with a contest against the Chicago Bears this Sunday. Cincinnati is a -1 home favorite with the total set at 42. They’ll host the Baltimore Ravens the following Sunday before traveling to Pittsburgh for a game against the Steelers on November 15. The Texans host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, with Houston a -3 home favorite and the total set at 44.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer and highly respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.